Three Techniques to Reduce Aggregate Sales Forecast Error by MORE THAN 25 Percent in LESS THAN 100 Days
Business Process Management
Training
Provided by Manufacturing Executive Institute
Reducing forecast error IS what the Chief Forecaster does!
All forecast error eventually results in increased inventory error. When actual sales arrive at a rate less than the forecast, the result is residual inventory. Likewise, when actual sales outstrip the forecast, customers backorders result which almost always results in someone swearing to never let that happen again resulting in an increase in either safety stock or an arbitrary increase in forecasts. All of these actions ALWAYS result in increases in inventory, decreases in cash poor working capital metrics and an increase in the risk of the enterprise.
Related Jobs or Careers: Operations Manager, Production Manager, Sales and Marketing, Forecaster, CEO, COO, VP of Operations
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Three Techniques to Reduce Aggregate Sales Forecast Error by MORE THAN 25 Percent in LESS THAN 100 Days
Reducing forecast error IS what the Chief Forecaster does
All forecast error eventually results in increased inventory error. When actual sales arrive at a rate less than the forecast, the result is residual inventory. Likewise, when actual sales outstrip the forecast, customers backorders result which almost always results in someone swearing to never let that happen again resulting in an increase in either safety stock or an arbitrary increase in forecasts. All of these actions ALWAYS result in increases in inventory, decreases in cash poor working capital metrics and an increase in the risk of the enterprise.
The Chief Forecaster spends his or her professional life trying to reduce forecast error so inventory investment can be balanced with customer service and factory efficiencies. To find this balance, the forecast must be constantly monitored and underlying reasons for error must be fully researched and articulated. Only by understanding the conditions behind error, can the forecasting professional understand how to minimize future forecast error.
This valuable 1-day Manufacturing Executive Institute 2nd Saturday - "Supply/ Demand Management School" Workshop has been specifically designed to provide THREE Techniques to Reduce Aggregate Sales Forecast Error by MORE THAN 25 in LESS THAN 100 Days. Participants will learn the "mechanics" of the 3 techniques as well as how they can successfully implement the techniques within their specific organizations. Using lecture, illustrative case studies, participatory break-out sessions and exercises, this workshop will address:
o Types of forecast error.
o Permissible error rates how NOT to replace forecast accuracy with unreasonable precision.
o Specific techniques for accurately measuring forecast error.
o Understanding the drivers of timing errors and magnitude errors.
o Separating normal demand from extraordinary demand.
o Survey of forecasting methods that can help you to discover conditions that lead to error.
o Three SPECIFIC techniques to reduce aggregate sales forecast error by more than 20 in less than 100 days, including:
1. How to decompose a forecast into its trend, seasonality and remainder components solving timing errors first.
2. Understanding future abnormal events that can impact shipments how to get future information from your marketing function and your distribution channels.
3. How to determine the relevant period of data needed to forecast accurately avoiding excessive normalization of data.
4. BONUS TECHNIQUE how to use backcasting techniques to determine prediction models that are more accurate for near term forecasts.
o Summary of data requirements for a more accurate forecast.
o Pulling past, present and future data together to assist in the development of a more accurate forecast.
Technical, organizational and behavioral impediments to successful and rapid deployment of these techniques will also be addressed so that participants can return to their respective companies and begin implementation of these techniques the following Monday.
Join us Friday July 24th, 2009.
All forecast error eventually results in increased inventory error. When actual sales arrive at a rate less than the forecast, the result is residual inventory. Likewise, when actual sales outstrip the forecast, customers backorders result which almost always results in someone swearing to never let that happen again resulting in an increase in either safety stock or an arbitrary increase in forecasts. All of these actions ALWAYS result in increases in inventory, decreases in cash poor working capital metrics and an increase in the risk of the enterprise.
The Chief Forecaster spends his or her professional life trying to reduce forecast error so inventory investment can be balanced with customer service and factory efficiencies. To find this balance, the forecast must be constantly monitored and underlying reasons for error must be fully researched and articulated. Only by understanding the conditions behind error, can the forecasting professional understand how to minimize future forecast error.
This valuable 1-day Manufacturing Executive Institute 2nd Saturday - "Supply/ Demand Management School" Workshop has been specifically designed to provide THREE Techniques to Reduce Aggregate Sales Forecast Error by MORE THAN 25 in LESS THAN 100 Days. Participants will learn the "mechanics" of the 3 techniques as well as how they can successfully implement the techniques within their specific organizations. Using lecture, illustrative case studies, participatory break-out sessions and exercises, this workshop will address:
o Types of forecast error.
o Permissible error rates how NOT to replace forecast accuracy with unreasonable precision.
o Specific techniques for accurately measuring forecast error.
o Understanding the drivers of timing errors and magnitude errors.
o Separating normal demand from extraordinary demand.
o Survey of forecasting methods that can help you to discover conditions that lead to error.
o Three SPECIFIC techniques to reduce aggregate sales forecast error by more than 20 in less than 100 days, including:
1. How to decompose a forecast into its trend, seasonality and remainder components solving timing errors first.
2. Understanding future abnormal events that can impact shipments how to get future information from your marketing function and your distribution channels.
3. How to determine the relevant period of data needed to forecast accurately avoiding excessive normalization of data.
4. BONUS TECHNIQUE how to use backcasting techniques to determine prediction models that are more accurate for near term forecasts.
o Summary of data requirements for a more accurate forecast.
o Pulling past, present and future data together to assist in the development of a more accurate forecast.
Technical, organizational and behavioral impediments to successful and rapid deployment of these techniques will also be addressed so that participants can return to their respective companies and begin implementation of these techniques the following Monday.
Join us Friday July 24th, 2009.
About The Training Provider: Manufacturing Executive Institute
Manufacturing Executive Institute - MEI is a training and publishing organization dedicated to bringing revelant manufacturing and distribution industries knowledge to individuals who are interested in dramatically improving their company's performance. MEI delivers knowledge to these communities in three ways: 1. Live training programs 2. Web-based Training programs 3. Publications. Additional resources include Manufacturing...
