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Provided by: FitchTraining Sovereign Country RiskAccounting and Finance |
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Training
Provided by FitchTraining
A two-day case study based workshop for those without a formal economics background. The intensive workshop will offer a structured approach to the analysis of sovereign and country risk in both emerging and mature markets and will review lessons learned from both the current and previous crises.
Related Awards, Degrees or Certifications: Earn CPD credits
We are an accredited training provider with a number of institutions including:
ACCA
NASBA
Securi
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Sovereign Country Risk
Course Objectives
Participants will be equipped to:
Understand the key drivers of sovereign and country risk in both mature and emerging markets
Identify qualitative, quantitative and market indicators of vulnerability
Recognise the impact of country risk on other corporate and financial exposures
Review the lessons learned from the current and previous crises in various regions of the world.
Target Audience
Analysts, fixed income, banking, insurance and other professionals with exposure to sovereign and country risk, but without a formal economics background.
Content
ANALYTIC OVERVIEW
Historical context
History of sovereign default and crisis
Current and previous economic crises: causes, effects and differing impact on mature and emerging markets
Sovereign issuer analysis versus country risk encompassing private sector
Role of IMF, World Bank and multi-laterals.
Perspectives on analysis
Rating agency sovereign methodology: capacity and willingness to service debt, foreign and local currency ratings
Transfer and convertibility risk: FX and local currency ratings, country ceilings
Market indicators: CDS, bond and equity indicators, forfeiting rates, capital flows
Structured approach to analysis: purpose, payback, risks and structure.
RISK ANALYSIS
Macro-economic policies and performance
Economic growth, inflation, income levels
Monetary and fiscal policies
Policy responses to economic crisis: fiscal and monetary stimuli, quantitative easing
Foreign exchange regime risk profiles
Market rates and purchasing power parity
Key performance indicators: benchmarks in mature and emerging economies.
Structural, political and governance risks
Savings and investment, capital flows
Business environment, trade and economic diversity and stability
Political risk: regime effectiveness and legitimacy, income disparity, conflict risk
International trade and political links
Governance: legal system, property rights, judicial process & corruption.
Financial sector
Macro prudential and financial strength indicators
Size and strength of banking system
Financial sector and overall intermediation levels, debt and equity capital markets
Regulatory responses to banking crisis: guarantees, insurance, bad banks, nationalisation and recapitalisation
Public finances
Fiscal policy and budgetary flexibility, primary budget balance, public sector
Sustainable debt and debt service burdens
Contingent risks: pension and healthcare, infrastructure
Key performance indicators: benchmarks in mature and emerging economies.
External finances
Balance of payments: trade, current account
Export and import composition and trends
Reliance on volatile receipts and flows e. g. commodities, remittances
External financing needs: exposure to volatile capital flows (portfolio capital and ST debt)
Net external debt burden relative to GDP and current account receipts
Central bank reserves and liquidity ratio.
Key performance indicators: benchmarks in mature and emerging economies.
STRUCTURE
Default and restructuring events, distressed debt exchanges
Private claims versus official and multilateral creditors e. g. Paris club, IMF
Export credit agency buyer and supplier credit
Country risk insurance.
Participants will be equipped to:
Understand the key drivers of sovereign and country risk in both mature and emerging markets
Identify qualitative, quantitative and market indicators of vulnerability
Recognise the impact of country risk on other corporate and financial exposures
Review the lessons learned from the current and previous crises in various regions of the world.
Target Audience
Analysts, fixed income, banking, insurance and other professionals with exposure to sovereign and country risk, but without a formal economics background.
Content
ANALYTIC OVERVIEW
Historical context
History of sovereign default and crisis
Current and previous economic crises: causes, effects and differing impact on mature and emerging markets
Sovereign issuer analysis versus country risk encompassing private sector
Role of IMF, World Bank and multi-laterals.
Perspectives on analysis
Rating agency sovereign methodology: capacity and willingness to service debt, foreign and local currency ratings
Transfer and convertibility risk: FX and local currency ratings, country ceilings
Market indicators: CDS, bond and equity indicators, forfeiting rates, capital flows
Structured approach to analysis: purpose, payback, risks and structure.
RISK ANALYSIS
Macro-economic policies and performance
Economic growth, inflation, income levels
Monetary and fiscal policies
Policy responses to economic crisis: fiscal and monetary stimuli, quantitative easing
Foreign exchange regime risk profiles
Market rates and purchasing power parity
Key performance indicators: benchmarks in mature and emerging economies.
Structural, political and governance risks
Savings and investment, capital flows
Business environment, trade and economic diversity and stability
Political risk: regime effectiveness and legitimacy, income disparity, conflict risk
International trade and political links
Governance: legal system, property rights, judicial process & corruption.
Financial sector
Macro prudential and financial strength indicators
Size and strength of banking system
Financial sector and overall intermediation levels, debt and equity capital markets
Regulatory responses to banking crisis: guarantees, insurance, bad banks, nationalisation and recapitalisation
Public finances
Fiscal policy and budgetary flexibility, primary budget balance, public sector
Sustainable debt and debt service burdens
Contingent risks: pension and healthcare, infrastructure
Key performance indicators: benchmarks in mature and emerging economies.
External finances
Balance of payments: trade, current account
Export and import composition and trends
Reliance on volatile receipts and flows e. g. commodities, remittances
External financing needs: exposure to volatile capital flows (portfolio capital and ST debt)
Net external debt burden relative to GDP and current account receipts
Central bank reserves and liquidity ratio.
Key performance indicators: benchmarks in mature and emerging economies.
STRUCTURE
Default and restructuring events, distressed debt exchanges
Private claims versus official and multilateral creditors e. g. Paris club, IMF
Export credit agency buyer and supplier credit
Country risk insurance.
About The Training Provider: FitchTraining
FitchTraining - Fitch Training is a specialist training firm focused on the provision of credit and corporate finance training. Courses are offered in three areas: financial institutions, corporate credit and securitization. Fitch Training is part of Fitch Solutions, a division of the Fitch Group. We also work in partnership with Fitch Solutions to provide quantitative training.
Fitch Training operates...
