Demand Planning and Forecasting Tutorial 2-Day Interactive Training
Business and Management Skills
Certificate Program
Provided by Demand Planning, LLC
Whether you are new to demand forecasting, or a seasoned pro looking to enhance your knowledge, you cannot afford to miss this opportunity:
GET SKILLS YOU CAN USE AT WORK
You will learn to...
- Set up a Demand Planning Process for your business
- Clean your data and adjust for data anomalies
- Use Statistical modeling to create baseline forecasts
- Use exponential smoothing and linear regression models
- Leverage the Regression capabilities in Excel
- Incorporate promotional events into your forecast modeling
- Use Forecast Error as a diagnostic to improve model quality
- Reconcile the top-down category forecast and the Bottom-up SKU level Demand Plan.
We will explain the modeling methodology and process behind accurate demand forecasts and how to effectively use promotional information to arrive at a consensus forecast. The focus will be on demand modeling using statistical techniques, the methodology to perform model diagnostics, forecast accuracy measurement and the process to incorporate market intelligence.
LEARN FROM INDUSTRY EXPERTS
Each training day will also include an industry-specific presentation from a senior supply chain manager:
Day 1- Demand Planning for Over the Counter Health Care Products
Guest Speaker: Senior Director of Demand Planning, Wyeth Consumer Health
Day 2- Forecasting for fast moving fashion products
Guest Speaker: Director of Estimating, Avon Products
NETWORK WITH YOUR PEERS
You will have ample opportunity to meet, interact, and learn from other demand planning professionals with team challenges and networking exercises.
ADD TO YOUR CREDENTIALS
Upon completion of the tutorial, you will be awarded a certificate of completion from Demand Planning LLC, attesting to your newly-acquired skills in Demand Planning.
REGISTER NOW ON DEMAND PLANNING. NET!
Related Awards, Degrees or Certifications: Certificate of completion
Related Jobs or Careers: demand planner, forecasting manager, supply chain manager, forecast analyst, demand planning manager
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Demand Planning and Forecasting Tutorial 2-Day Interactive Training
Day 1
8: 30AM Registration & Breakfast
9: 00 AM Opening Address
9: 15 AM Demand Planning Overview
Definition of Demand
Introduction to Demand Planning-
The Service Cost Balance Model
Distinction between Forecasting and Demand Planning
What to forecast shipments vs. orders
Forecast Horizon, Buckets & Periodicity
Constrained vs. Unconstrained forecasts
Demand Management
Organization Structure and Culture
Role of the Demand Forecaster
Consensus and communication
10: 45AM Coffee Break
11am Data Analysis for forecasting
Data Requirements for Demand Planning
Graphical review of the Data
Central Tendency and measures of Dispersion
Outliers and Missing Data
Structural Changes and Data Shifts
What is a Forecast Model?
Introduction to Demand Components
Ex-Ante versus Ex-Post Forecasting
Hold out Sample Methodology
Optimal Model Selection
12: 30 Lunch Break
1: 30pm: Demand Planning for Over the
Counter HealthCare Products
Guest Speaker: Jay Nearnberg, Senior Director of Demand Planning, Wyeth Consumer Health
2: 30pm-3pm Coffee Break & Networking Exercise
3: 00pm Modeling & Graphical Decomposition
Decomposition of the Demand Profile
Understanding the components -
Trend, Seasonality, Cyclicality
Predictable and unpredictable volatility
Stationarity and Stability
Diagnostics review to improve model quality
Modeling by Exception
4: 30pm Assignment of Forecasting exercises
to participants
Day 2
8: 30am Modeling
Introduction to Forecast Modeling
Qualities of a good Statistical Forecast
Balancing between Model Fit vs. Robustness
Time Series versus Multi-Variate Methods
First Order Exponential Smoothing Models
Holt Models to accommodate Trend
Holt Winters Models
How to set up a simple forecast model in Excel
Exponential Trend and Dampening
Additive vs. Multiplicative Seasonality in Models
Baseline vs. event forecasting
Introduction to Box-Jenkins Models
Multiple Linear Regression Models
Time and Seasonal Index in an Excel model
11: 30am Lunch Break
12: 30pm Forecasting for fast moving
fashion products
Guest Speaker: Mark Temkin, Director of Estimating, Avon Products
1: 30pm Forecast Errors & Model Diagnostics
Definition of Demand Forecast Errors
Errors over time vs. Errors Across Products
Calculation Methodology for Model Diagnostics
Mechanics behind MAD, MPE, MAPE and RMSE
How to identify a biased Forecast?
2: 30pm-2: 45pm Coffee Break
2: 45pm Measuring Forecast Performance
Importance of measuring forecast performance
Management Reporting and Continuous Improvement
Measurement Methodology
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Mean Percentage Error (MPE)
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE or PMAD)
Weighted Mean Percentage Error (WMAPE)
Forecast Bias and Sku Mix Error (SME)
Relationship between Bias and Error
4pm Discussion and answers
to assigned exercises
8: 30AM Registration & Breakfast
9: 00 AM Opening Address
9: 15 AM Demand Planning Overview
Definition of Demand
Introduction to Demand Planning-
The Service Cost Balance Model
Distinction between Forecasting and Demand Planning
What to forecast shipments vs. orders
Forecast Horizon, Buckets & Periodicity
Constrained vs. Unconstrained forecasts
Demand Management
Organization Structure and Culture
Role of the Demand Forecaster
Consensus and communication
10: 45AM Coffee Break
11am Data Analysis for forecasting
Data Requirements for Demand Planning
Graphical review of the Data
Central Tendency and measures of Dispersion
Outliers and Missing Data
Structural Changes and Data Shifts
What is a Forecast Model?
Introduction to Demand Components
Ex-Ante versus Ex-Post Forecasting
Hold out Sample Methodology
Optimal Model Selection
12: 30 Lunch Break
1: 30pm: Demand Planning for Over the
Counter HealthCare Products
Guest Speaker: Jay Nearnberg, Senior Director of Demand Planning, Wyeth Consumer Health
2: 30pm-3pm Coffee Break & Networking Exercise
3: 00pm Modeling & Graphical Decomposition
Decomposition of the Demand Profile
Understanding the components -
Trend, Seasonality, Cyclicality
Predictable and unpredictable volatility
Stationarity and Stability
Diagnostics review to improve model quality
Modeling by Exception
4: 30pm Assignment of Forecasting exercises
to participants
Day 2
8: 30am Modeling
Introduction to Forecast Modeling
Qualities of a good Statistical Forecast
Balancing between Model Fit vs. Robustness
Time Series versus Multi-Variate Methods
First Order Exponential Smoothing Models
Holt Models to accommodate Trend
Holt Winters Models
How to set up a simple forecast model in Excel
Exponential Trend and Dampening
Additive vs. Multiplicative Seasonality in Models
Baseline vs. event forecasting
Introduction to Box-Jenkins Models
Multiple Linear Regression Models
Time and Seasonal Index in an Excel model
11: 30am Lunch Break
12: 30pm Forecasting for fast moving
fashion products
Guest Speaker: Mark Temkin, Director of Estimating, Avon Products
1: 30pm Forecast Errors & Model Diagnostics
Definition of Demand Forecast Errors
Errors over time vs. Errors Across Products
Calculation Methodology for Model Diagnostics
Mechanics behind MAD, MPE, MAPE and RMSE
How to identify a biased Forecast?
2: 30pm-2: 45pm Coffee Break
2: 45pm Measuring Forecast Performance
Importance of measuring forecast performance
Management Reporting and Continuous Improvement
Measurement Methodology
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Mean Percentage Error (MPE)
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE or PMAD)
Weighted Mean Percentage Error (WMAPE)
Forecast Bias and Sku Mix Error (SME)
Relationship between Bias and Error
4pm Discussion and answers
to assigned exercises
About The Training Provider: Demand Planning, LLC
Demand Planning, LLC - Demand Planning, LLC specializes in Business Process and Strategy consulting in the areas of Demand Management and Sales and Operations Planning for medium-sized businesses. Based in Woburn, MA, the firm also offers a variety of training services in Forecasting, Planning and Supply Chain management. We offer on-site hosted workshops, training seminars, webinars on current topics as well as a...
